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The sensitivity of probabilistic convective‐scale forecasts..:

Gentile, Emanuele S ; Gray, Suzanne L ; Lewis, Huw W
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/101968/1/Quart%20J%20Royal%20Meteoro%20Soc%20-%202021%20-%20Gentile%20-%20The%20sensitivity%20of%20probabilistic%20convective%25u2010scale%20forecasts%20of%20an.pdf.  , 2022